US defeat to Afghan Taliban: What are the global consequences?
Political observers have strongly criticized US President Joe Biden's hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. It is said to be unnecessary and a betrayal of the believers.
The heartbreaking photos from Kabul airport add to these criticisms. Western nations have shed a lot of blood in Afghanistan. Have spent great money over the years. The price paid by the Afghans is even higher than these.
It is very difficult to argue against the criticisms regarding the hasty departure of the Biden administration from Afghanistan. Afghanistan may be a country that cannot really be saved. Its governance structures may be corrupt. But hasn’t all of this happened in the last two years? What has happened in the last twenty years?
Whatever the argument, the sudden departure has cast a great deal of doubt on the credibility of the United States. This is a disgrace to the credibility of the United States as an ally and with the moral right to interfere in world affairs.
Can it be compared to Vietnam?
The evacuation of people by helicopters from a city that is falling to the enemy is inevitable on the front pages of newspapers. What happened then in Vietnam is comparable to what is happening in Afghanistan today. Although there are superficial similarities, there are some important differences.
Afghanistan is not like that. The capital has been captured and the state has fallen before it can be completely expelled. Looking at this, it seems as if the United States was hoping that the Afghan army they had trained would protect the capital for some time to come.
America's respect for Vietnam was diminished. The military commitment was shattered. There was a deep division among the people.
But the Vietnam War was a side event of the Cold War. Despite the slippage there, it was the United States that won the end of the Cold War. The NATO system was not weakened then. The world did not hesitate to seek the help of the United States. The United States continued to be a great power.
Afghanistan is completely different. The divisions within the United States caused by this war can in no way be compared to Vietnam. There is certainly no domestic support for the war being waged in Afghanistan. At the same time, there were no large-scale struggles against the war.
Importantly, today's international environment is dramatically different from it was in the 1970s. Western nations, including the United States, are embroiled in a variety of conflicts and rivalries around the world. In some, they have clearly succeeded. The current slide in Afghanistan is a disaster for the slogan of the war on terror. Yet in the pervasive conflict between democracy and dictatorship, America's defeat can only be seen as a serious setback.
In Moscow and Beijing, there will be at least one miniature for now. The Western model of liberal intervention by the West to establish democracy and the rule of law is disastrous in Afghanistan. No one will be interested in such interventions in the future.
Anxiety for allies
Allied allies feel that they have been badly defeated in the war in Afghanistan. Even British ministers who had a jealous "special relationship" with Washington were openly critical of Biden's hasty decision.
The war has clearly underscored the extent to which European allies depend on the United States. It has also made it clear that the United States is in a position to follow that path without saying anything after taking a decision and moving in its direction.
This is bad news for Western countries. How long will the smile that Anas has in China, Russia, and Pakistan last? Pakistan has been harboring and protecting the Taliban for its own strategic gain.
But if the renewed Taliban rule is to turn the wheel of time, it is a way to stem international terrorism. It will cause regional unrest and have a negative effect on Pakistan.
Smile at the enemies of the West
China is happy with the US defeat. If Biden had decided to leave Afghanistan only to concentrate his actions against China, it would certainly have provided an opportunity for China to expand its influence in Afghanistan and beyond.
But there is also the point where China has to worry. China has a very narrow border with Afghanistan. While there are allegations that China is using repression against Islamists, there is a danger that Islamic groups against Beijing will use Afghanistan as a base. So it is no surprise that China was keen to hold talks with the Taliban.
Russia has a similar concern. One can take comfort in the fact that the United States has suffered the same setback as it did in the 1980s.
But Russia is concerned that the security of its allies, Central Asia, could be threatened. That is why it conducted a war drill on the Tajikistan-Afghan border to prevent casualties from fleeing Afghanistan.
So in the short term, the defeat of the United States in Afghanistan will certainly benefit its adversaries. But their attitude will never change.
What really matters is the changes that take place between America's allies. What will they take from the Afghanistan experience?
If so, Python's decision to leave Afghanistan could have far-reaching consequences in the future.